Quinnipiac University tested several different segments and scenarios in FL-Sen. Here they are (2/11-16, registered voters, 1/21 in parens):
Dem primary:
Pam Iorio: 16
Kendrick Meek: 16
Ron Klein: 14
Dan Gelber: 5
Other: 2
Wouldn’t Vote: 4
Undecided: 43
(MoE: ±5.1%)
GOP primary without Crist:
Connie Mack: 34
Vern Buchanan: 11
Marco Rubio: 6
Allan Bense: 4
Other: 2
Wouldn’t Vote: 5
Undecided: 38
(MoE: ±4.7)
GOP primary with Crist:
Charlie Crist: 53
Connie Mack: 13
Vern Buchanan: 5
Marco Rubio: 3
Allan Bense: 2
Other: 2
Wouldn’t Vote: 1
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4.7)
Crist vs. generic D:
Democrat: 25 (27)
Charlie Crist (R): 48 (47)
Undecided: 27 (27)
(MoE: ±3.1)
Since you probably want a scorecard:
State Sen. Dan Gelber (Miami area)
Mayor Pam Iorio (Tampa)
Rep. Ron Klein (FL-22)
Rep. Kendrick Meek (FL-17)Former state House Speaker Allan Bense (Panama City area)
Rep. Vern Buchanan (FL-13)
Rep. Connie Mack IV (FL-14)
Former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (Miami area)
And of course, Gov. Charlie Crist needs no introduction. The only people on this list who have actually announced, though, are Meek and Gelber – the field is very much in flux. (North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns has also jumped in on the Dem side, but he wasn’t tested.) Anyhow, I only have two quick comments:
1) Yes, I realize that Connie Mack (aka Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV) is fortunate, politically speaking, to share the exact same name as his famous father, who was a US Senator until 2001. But wasn’t it a bit much for Quinnipiac to prod respondents by wording their question like so: “Is your opinion of Congressman Connie Mack IV, son of former United States Senator Connie Mack, favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?” I think that partly explains his unusually high numbers.
2) Crist looks like he’s riding tall right now in the Republican primary, but a colleague of mine well-versed in Florida politics has me convinced that Crist’s apostasy will guarantee him a fierce challenge from the right. His cheerleading for the stimulus – which the GOP standard-bearers have insanely decided to turn into the ultimate conservative litmus test – is just Exhibit A on his list of sins. We’ll see if the wingnuts can really make him feel pain, or if they’ll just have to suck it up and (gasp!) support someone electable. Obviously, we’re rooting for option one.
(Hat-tip: Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire)
I tend to think he has much bigger fish to fry in, say, 2016 when he can run for President at the spurring age of 60. Hey, he can even try to pass off touting the achievements of Pres. Obama and saying that in the ultimate act of bipartisanship, he will continue them. That’d ought to send the GOP deeper down than it already is.
However, if Crist does go into the Florida Senate race in this present time, it would be a great plus if the crazies can coalesce around a “conservative” to defeat Crist in the primary, at the same time deny him the chance to run for reelection as Governor. That way the Dems get a much better shot of getting both the Florida Senate seat and gubernatorial seat also.
In defense of Quinnipiac, perhaps they simply were trying to make sure respondents were not confusing Connie Mack IV with the former senator. On all prior polls where Mack has tested well, people have speculated that his numbers were inflated because many respondents were confused as to who they were answering about and mistakenly thought the poll was about his father. Seems like a damned if do, damned if you don’t kind of situation.
into the Senate race. I can’t see him giving up the Governor’s mansion.
… he has an interesting pedigree but I don’t know enough about him yet. None of the candidates really grab me. Dan Gelber sounds like the best of the bunch, but obviously he’s trailing.
I can’t understand why Crist wants to run for Senate, but I’d rather have him there than run against him in 2012.
Does getting the national attention being a US Sen gives compared to being the the Gov of FL really compare? I mean, we all hear his name anyway.
So here is how it would go. If he did Gov again, he could run in 2012, termed out in 2014, start running again for 2016. Makes sense.
Senator, run for Senate in 2010, Pres in 2012, and then he’d be a Senator through 2016, where he’d retire from the seat after one term to run for Pres.
So we all probably agree he’d do 2 runs at the thing. 2012 will be a disaster, especially with Palin in it. I can’t wait to see how she’ll do, I REALLY hope she wins it. But if he does 2 runs, we should want him to do the Senate run right now. That would A. Give us Sink in the Gov race where she can hopefully win and we can get some redistricting say for 2012. Then, in 2016, the Senate seat will open up again which will give us time to actually build the party up there with some fair redistricting lines first off that Sink can get us a say in. And let’s make sure we get a top candidate. He’d clearly be indicating he’d run for president in 2016 very early on so we can make sure we are prepared.
I wonder if Mack gets more from his father’s name or the name of his great grandfather, the famous baseball (player/manager/owner)’s name? Personally, I’m more familiar with the latter, but then I’m big into sports history.
with all other Democrats hailing from Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties and thus dividing the vote from that area, she could win the primary based on the votes from Hillsborough, Pinnelas Counties where she is known and popular. I think she would do well with the conservative Democrats from northern Fla. who are very uncomfortable with the Miami liberals. Orange and Volusia County could be a swing area, but think she could win their based on the proximity of Tampa to Orlando, and the fact that they would rather have a representative from the I-4 corridor than Miami. Same goes for the general. With Rubio, Mack, and Buchanan all being from South Florida, and her being from Tampa, she should start with an advantage in that crucial swing area that has been trending Democratic anyway.
running for senate for all the reasons so far laid out. But…this keeps being talked about very seriously and Crist is not stifling the discussion in any way.
He may not run in the end, but I do think that when there’s smoke there’s fire. I, like most here, think the Gov’s seat is more important than the senate seat. But he must not be so sure.
I think it’s fascinating that the US Senate – which was considered a killing floor for Presidential aspirations for almost 50 years, is now seen as a plus. I mean we’ve had a lot of talk about Palin being appointed to Stevens’ seat (if he won and was then sent to jail) and running for Murkowski’s seat so she’s in a postion to run for president! And now Crist giving up one of the most important gov seats in a redistricting year. It seems like daylight madness.
I think she is the only candidate out of this bunch who could win a statewide race against anyone but Vern Buchanan.
And I think Iorio would beat any Repub but Crist.